Insight 10 November 2023

避免2030年“砖墙”的四种方法

A brick wall. Which is getting bigger. 我们正带着真正的灾难风险冲向它.

这就是领先的预言影响者, Antony Slumbers, describes the 2030 deadline, when UK carbon emissions must have reduced by 45% in line with the Paris Agreement.

安东尼在米蒂最近的一次会议上发表了主题演讲 Decarbonisation, Delivered briefing, 德勤等机构的专家在哪里, 埃塞克斯郡议会和凤凰集团齐聚一堂，了解情况 房地产优化:经过验证的策略，以减少成本和碳.

他说:“最后期限已经设定了7年. It’s seven years since David Bowie died, the Brexit referendum and President Trump was elected. Yet it feels like yesterday. Make no mistake, 2030年并不遥远，这是一堵砖墙, 我们正在冲向它——这将会很痛苦.”

Antony went on to outline four of the greatest challenges that must be overcome if the 2030 deadline is to be reached. Let’s look at each in turn…

挑战1:房地产脱碳

Antony Slumbers presenting at the front of an Estate Optimisation event at Mitie offices in the Shard, London,
安东尼·斯朗伯斯在Mitie最新的主题演讲 Decarbonisation, Delivered “优化屋苑”简介会

According to the 联合国环境规划署, 建筑环境占总碳排放量的38%, 还有36%的能源消耗. 但要与净零情景保持一致, the International Energy Agency states carbon emissions from building operations need to more than halve by 2030. And ironically, 在2021年放宽Covid-19限制之后, energy demand in buildings increased by nearly 4% – the largest annual increase in the last decade.

Antony believes a tougher official line will be taken to get buildings to where they need to be. 他说:“伦敦85%的商业地产达不到2030年的标准. There will be huge penalties. 你会收到一大笔账单，或者被禁止租赁资产. This wall is real.”

On the upside, 安东尼提请注意“绿色溢价”, which mean sustainable and energy efficient buildings are more desirable to top organisations and are therefore more lucrative.

Takeaway: 房地产的脱碳需要迎头赶上——而且要快. 组织应该在被迫采取行动之前采取行动. 但除了拯救地球之外，还有其他好处. Sustainable buildings that are pleasant to be in attract premium rents and are more valuable.

Challenge #2: Adapting to the move to hybrid, remote and distributed working

安东尼概述了办公室用途的巨大变化. 直到2019年，它还是主要的工作场所, a central hub for business, 与同事社交和团队建设. Downsides included the commute, the noise and distractions of open plan spaces and lack of privacy.

然后是Covid-19，带来了数百万人 people working from home, business leaders were concerned about productivity, collaboration and communication. 安东尼认为，这一切都是不合理的.

安东尼说:“这是无事生非. Good companies had no problems dealing with it… Workers now realise commuting does not have to be a daily fixture. 选择和灵活性可以改变生活. 大多数人都想以混合的方式工作. Hybrid is hard. It was easy when we were all at home or all in the office – now we’re all over the place. 我们需要重新设计工作场所，这样我们就不再以办公室为中心了.”

Takeaway: 接受不可能再回到五天上班的日子. 混合工作及其在实践中的意义将继续发生变化. The most forward-thinking organisations will grasp the opportunity to hone and optimise their hybrid working strategy, 使他们对潜在的同事和商业伙伴更具吸引力.

挑战3:我们将如何处理大量的废弃建筑?

Antony revealed how challenges one and two have led to challenge three: what should be done with buildings that are not fit for purpose? A 最近的报告显示，过时带来了机会. 在美国，46%的办公用品已经或即将过时. 欧洲的情况稍好一些，有14%的办公室被废弃. Perhaps surprisingly, overhauling these spaces to align with the demands of colleagues and the 2030 deadline is less of a challenge than it might appear.

Antony Slumbers, in a tan suit and dark shirt, gesturing in front of a presention slide at a Mitie Estate Optimisation event
Antony Slumbers: “You have to get to sustainable buildings, otherwise there is no point.”

安东尼说:“我们知道如何解决这个问题. People want more choice. 他们想要更少但更好的空间，他们想要便利设施, employee experience, 科技无处不在，无处不在. 可持续发展是最重要的——你必须建造可持续发展的建筑, 否则就没有意义了…我们可以重新定位, repurpose or refurbish. And repurposing or refurbishing is the great opportunity…We’ve got to be more creative, 更有创意，更有远见. 如果没有大量的技术，这一切都不可能实现.”

Takeaway: 脱碳和混合工作可能导致建筑物过剩, 但有一个巨大的机会来翻新和重新利用它们. Applying technology-backed solutions will help organisations create new and exciting sustainable spaces for this new era in the modern built environment.

Challenge # 4: How will we save our cities from the consequences of all this change?

安东尼谈到了城市面临的艰难时期, with increasing real estate, 经济和社会挑战. 变化如此之多，城市又怎能繁荣? For Antony, it’s a question of coming back to the experience offered by the built environment.

He said: “We should be starting with customer experience and working back to the real estate. To reinvigorate our cities, you have to think what it feels like to be in a great human-centric city. 安全，可靠，连接和参与. 健康快乐，充满灵感和创造力. Empowered and included. If cities want to remain successful and important in an increasingly distributed world, 我们不需要去的地方, 他们需要考虑这些产出. It’s a huge challenge.”

根据安东尼的说法，重振我们的城市取决于四个关键行动:

  • Sustainable development
  • 加强社区和共融
  • 拥抱创新和科技
  • 加强文化娱乐设施建设

Takeway: 这座城市的生存不仅仅是商业和工作. It’s about incentivising people to come back to the city because it’s a great place to be. As Antony said: “Cities need to have a foot heavy on the pedal of innovation.” Supporting cities so they offer rich culture and recreation will see that they survive the changes of recent years and thrive for years to come.

And finally…

Concluding his speech, Antony highlighted an additional factor that will impact each of the four challenges – generative AI.

He said: “Last year, Chat GPT went from nought to 100m users in three months – the fastest growing technology of all time. It’s a general purpose technology – like electricity, the combustion engine and the internet. 每个人都会在任何地方使用它.”

人工智能将如何影响房地产还有待观察, but Antony signed off on a positive note that puts people at the centre of solving the challenge of the 2030 ‘brick wall’.

他说:“这将是一生难得的机会. Doing refurbish or repurpose, 你必须为人们设计, not investors…You have to start with the customer and work back in everything. Think of people first.”

antonyslumbers.com

渴望了解更多关于优化您的财产? Read a summary of the event.

获得脱碳，交付

Read next

See Resource Archive